Limits Forecast Lab
Read-only model comparison for global and partially pooled sportsbook signals. This surface never writes production forecasts or claims calibration from transition-only evidence.
Promotion gate Prediction semantics
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Candidate diagnostics Forecast definition
| Candidate | Scope | Walk-forward samples | Brier | Log loss |
|---|
Evidence lifecycle Evidence trace
Issued forecasts remain pending until the 48-hour horizon is covered by a terminal observation. Pending forecasts are never counted as no-raise outcomes.
Sportsbook partial pooling Sportsbook patterns
Global weight shows how strongly a sparse sportsbook estimate shrinks toward the shared population rate.
| Sportsbook | Transitions | Raises | Observed | Pooled | Global weight | Support |
|---|
League, competition & country context League Competition Host country
Governed dimensions for segmenting limit evidence. League scope and event-host country stay separate: a global ITF tier receives the flag of the country hosting that event.
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